oa Dynamiek in overscholing en verdringing op de arbeidsmarkt

The dynamics of overeducation and bumping down on the labour market

This article addresses the dynamics in overeducation and crowding out in the Dutch labour market. More specifically, it is investigated whether structural or cyclical overeducation and crowding out is predominant. In order to do so, trends in the transition from adequate employment into overeducation, unemployment or inactivity and the other way around are analysed. Results of discrete-time event history analysis, using the OSA Labour supply panel 1988-2004, show that cyclical overeducation and crowding out exist. First of all, the transition rate from adequate employment into overeducation, unemployment or inactivity is larger, as the aggregate unemployment rate is higher. In addition, the results demonstrate that the conditional likelihood of entering adequate employment from overeducation, unemployment or inactivity is smaller, as the unemployment level is higher. There was no evidence found for structural overeducation and crowding out in the Dutch labour market.