Een longitudinale studie naar het afgenomen vertrouwen gedurende de coronapandemie | Amsterdam University Press Journals Online
2004
  1. Home
  2. A-Z Publications
  3. Mens & Maatschappij
  4. Volume 98, Issue 4
  5. Article
Volume 98, Issue 4
  • ISSN: 0025-9454
  • E-ISSN: 1876-2816

Abstract

Abstract

This study provides a longitudinal analysis of the strong decline in trust in the government in the Netherlands during the corona pandemic in 2020/2021. At the start of the pandemic, 69 per cent of the Dutch population had (much) trust in the government. One and a half year later this was declined to only 29 per cent. Using multilevel regression we studied individual level differences in both the level of trust and the degree of decline during the corona pandemic. We found various differences in the level of trust, particularly a strong effect of education: higher and intermediate educated people have more trust than lower educated respondents. All time varying variables also correlated with trust: the more people have troubles with making ends meet, have health problems and the higher their discontent with corona policies, the lower their trust in the government. Perceived threat by COVID increases trust in the government. Surprisingly, we found no individual differences in the decline of trust. Irrespective of their education, migration background or other characteristics, the decline in trust during the corona pandemic is more or less the same for all respondents. However, we found that the development of trust is related with several time varying variables. There is a clear relation between the steep decline in trust and the growing discontent with corona policies. The decline in trust is also related to the perceived threat of the virus. Particularly in the later phase of the pandemic, both the perceived threat and the level of trust dropped. The average development of trust seemed not related to economic security and health problems during the pandemic. Although the perceived health remained rather constant during the pandemic and respondents experienced less problems with making ends meet, partly because the extensive economic support of the Dutch government, the level of trust in the government nevertheless fell.

© Erik Snel, Godfried Engbersen, Peter van der Heijden & Hanne Oberman
Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/journals/10.5117/MEM2023.4.004.SNEL
2023-11-01
2024-05-15
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. Alesina, A. en E.La Ferrara (2002), Who trusts others?Journal of public economics, 85(2): 207-234. DOI:10.1016/S0047-2727(01)00084-6.
     [Google Scholar]
  2. Baekgaard, M., Christensen, J., Krogh Madsen, J. & Sass Mikkelsen, K. (2020), Rallying around the flag in times of COVID-19: Societal Lockdown and Trust in Democratic Institutions. Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, 3 (2): 1-12. DOI:10.30636/jbpa.32.172.
     [Google Scholar]
  3. Bates, D., Mächler, M., Bolker, B., & Walker, S. (2015), Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4. Journal of Statistical Software, 67(1), 1–48. DOI:10.18637/jss.v067.i01.
     [Google Scholar]
  4. Bol, D., Giani, M., Blais, A. & Loewen, P.J. (2020), The effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy?European Journal of Political Research, 60(2): 497-505. DOI:10.1111/1475-6765.12401.
     [Google Scholar]
  5. Den Ridder, J., Miltenburg, E., Steenvoorden, E., Meer, T. van der & Dekker, P. (2020), Burgerperspectieven 2020/4. Den Haag: SCP. Verkregen op 7april2021, https://www.scp.nl/publicaties/publicaties/2020/12/28/burgerperspectieven-2020-4.
     [Google Scholar]
  6. Den Ridder, J., Vermeij, L., Maslowski, R. & Van ‘t Hull, J. (2021) Burgerperspectieven 2021/4. Den Haag: SCP. Verkregen op 7april2021, https://www.scp.nl/publicaties/publicaties/2021/12/27/burgerperspectieven-2021---kwartaal-4
     [Google Scholar]
  7. Den Ridder, J., Van ’t Hul, J. & Van den Broek, A. (2023a), Burgerperspectieven 2023 bericht 1. Den Haag: SCP. Verkregen op 21juni2023, https://www.scp.nl/publicaties/publicaties/2023/04/20/burgerperspectieven-2023-bericht-1
     [Google Scholar]
  8. Den Ridder, J., Kunst, S., Hartman, C. & Miltenburg, E. (2023b), Burgerperspectieven 2023 bericht 2. Den Haag: SCP. Verkregen op 20september2023. https://www.scp.nl/publicaties/publicaties/2023/08/31/burgerperspectieven-2023-bericht-2
     [Google Scholar]
  9. De Vries, C., Bakker, B., Hobolt, S., & Arceneaux, K. (2021), Crisis signalling: How Italy’s coronavirus lockdown affected incumbent support in other European countries. Political Science Research and Methods, 9(3), 451-467. DOI:10.1017/psrm.2021.6
     [Google Scholar]
  10. Drechsler, J. (2015), Multiple imputation of multilevel missing data – Rigor versus simplicity. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 40(1), 69-95.
     [Google Scholar]
  11. Engbersen, G., Bochhove, M. van, Boom, J. de, Burgers, J., Custers, G., Erdem, Ö., Krouwel, A., Lindert, J. van, Snel, E., Toorn, M. van, Wensveen, P. van & Wentink, T. (2020), De bedreigde stad. Maatschappelijke impact van COVID-19 op Rotterdam. Rotterdam: Kenniswerkplaats Leefbare Wijken. Verkregen op 1september2022, https://www.impactcorona.nl/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020-04-Def_rapportdebedreigde-stad.pdf
     [Google Scholar]
  12. Engbersen, G., Bochhove, M. van, Boom, J. de, Bussemaker, J., El Farisi, B., Krouwel, A., Lindert, J. van, Rusinovic, K., Snel, E., Heck, L. van, Veen, H. van der & Wensveen, P. (2021), De laag-vertrouwen samenleving. Maatschappelijke impact van COVID-19 op Amsterdam, Den Haag, Rotterdam en Nederland. Rotterdam: Kenniswerkplaats Leefbare Wijken. Verkregen op 1september2022, https://www.impactcorona.nl/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Def_-1-november_rapport_laag-vertrouwensamenleving_def83.pdf
     [Google Scholar]
  13. Hakhverdian, A. & Mayne, Q.2012, Institutional Trust, Education, and Corruption: A Micro-Macro Interactive Approach. Journal of Politics, 74(3): 739-750. DOI:10.1017/S0022381612000412
     [Google Scholar]
  14. Han, Q., Zheng, B., Cristea, M., Agostini, M., Bélanger, J., Gützkow, B., Kreienkamp, J., PsyCorona Collaboration & Pontus Leander, N. (2023), Trust in government regarding COVID-19 and its associations with preventive health behaviour and prosocial behaviour during the pandemic: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study. Psychological Medicine, 53, 149–159. DOI:10.1017/S0033291721001306.
     [Google Scholar]
  15. Hox, J., Moerbeek, M. & Schoot, R. van der (2018), Multilevel analysis. Techniques and Applications (3rd ed). New York Routledge.
     [Google Scholar]
  16. Johansson, B., Nicolas Hopmann, D. & Shehata, A. (2021), When the Rally-aroundthe-Flag Effect Disappears, or: When the COVID-19 Pandemic Becomes ‘Normalized’. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31 (sup1): 321–34. DOI:10.1080/1745289.2021.1924742
     [Google Scholar]
  17. Kritzinger, S., Foucault, M., Lachat, R., Partheymüller, J., Plescia, C. & Brouard, S. (2021), Rally round the flag’: the COVID-19 crisis and trust in the national government, West European Politics, 44:5-6, 1205-1231, DOI:10.1080/01402382.2021.1925017.
     [Google Scholar]
  18. Wang, L. (P.), & Maxwell, S. E. (2015). On disaggregating between-person and withinperson effects with longitudinal data using multilevel models. Psychological Methods, 20(1), 63–83. DOI:10.1037/met0000030.
     [Google Scholar]
  19. Mueller, J.E. (1970), Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. The American Political Science Review, 64(1): 18-34. DOI:10.2307/1955610.
     [Google Scholar]
  20. Mattila, M. & Rapeli, L. (2018), Just Sick of It? Health and Political Trust in Western Europe. European Journal of Political Research, vol. 57, no. 1, pp. 116-134. DOI:10.1111/1475-6765.1.
     [Google Scholar]
  21. Matilla, M. (2020), Does poor health mobilize people into action? Health, political trust, and participation. European Political Science Review, 12(1), 49-65. DOI:10.1017/S175577391900033X.
     [Google Scholar]
  22. Newton, K. & Zmerli, S. (2011), Three forms of trust and their association. European Political Science Review, 3(2): 169-200, DOI:10.1017/S1755773910000330.
     [Google Scholar]
  23. Putnam, R.J. (2000), Bowling alone. The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Schuster.
     [Google Scholar]
  24. R Core Team (2019), R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
  25. Robitzsch, A., Grund, S. & Henke, T. (2021), Miceadds: Some Additional Multiple Imputation Functions, Especially for “mice” (3.11-6). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=miceadds
     [Google Scholar]
  26. Schmeets, H. (2017), Vertrouwen in elkaar en in de samenleving. Den Haag: WRR-Working Paper nr. 26.
     [Google Scholar]
  27. Schraff, D. (2020), Political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic: Rally around the flag or lockdown effects?European journal of political research. SocArXiv8juni2020. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/pu47c.
     [Google Scholar]
  28. Snel, E., El Farisi, B., Engbersen, G. & Krouwel, A. (2022), Sociaaleconomische status en institutioneel vertrouwen in een tijd van corona. Tijdschrift Sociologie, 3: 30-52 DOI:10.38139/TS.2022.02.
     [Google Scholar]
  29. Snel, E., Engbersen, G., De Boom, J., Seidler, Y., Sam, N., Enneking, G., l’Istelle, F., Van Heck, L., Van Lindert, J. (2023), Corona & Cohesie Dashboard Sociale Impact Corona – verslag meting 5 en 6: Rotterdam: Risbo/EUR (URL https://www.eur.nl/media/109927)
     [Google Scholar]
  30. Torcal, M. (2017), Political trust in western and southern Europe. In: Zmerli, S. & van der Meer, T. (eds.) Handbook on political trust (pp. 418-439). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
     [Google Scholar]
  31. Uslaner, E.M. (2008), Trust as a moral value. In: E.M.Uslaner (red.) The handbook of social capital (pp. 101-121). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
     [Google Scholar]
  32. Van BuurenS. & Oudshoorn, K. (2000), Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations: MICE V1.0 User’s Manual. Leiden: TNO Prevention and Health (TNO Report PG/VGZ/00.038). https://stefvanbuuren.name/publication/2000-01-01_vanbuuren2000/
     [Google Scholar]
  33. Van Buuren, S. (2018). Flexible imputation of missing data (2th ed.). Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC. URL https://stefvanbuuren.name/fimd/
     [Google Scholar]
  34. Van der Meer, T. & Hakhverdian, A. (2017), Political Trust as the Evaluation of Process and Performance: A Cross-National Study of 42 European Countries. Political Studies, 65(1), 81-102. DOI:10.1177/0032321715607514
     [Google Scholar]
  35. Vink, G., Lazendic, G., & van Buuren, S. (2015). Partioned predictive mean matching as a large data multilevel imputation technique. Psychological Test and Assessment Modeling, 57(4), 577-594.
     [Google Scholar]
  36. Wroe, A. (2016), Economic insecurity and political trust in the United States. American Politics Research, 44(1): 131-163, DOI:10.1177/1532673X15597745.
     [Google Scholar]
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/journals/10.5117/MEM2023.4.004.SNEL
Loading
Een longitudinale studie naar het afgenomen vertrouwen gedurende de coronapandemie
M&M 98, 369 (2023); https://doi.org/10.5117/MEM2023.4.004.SNEL
/content/journals/10.5117/MEM2023.4.004.SNEL
/content/journals/10.5117/MEM2023.4.004.SNEL
Loading

Data & Media loading...

Keyword(s): COVID19 pandemic; discontent; longitudinal analysis; political trust; social inequality

Most Cited Most Cited RSS feed

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error